Posted by
Marmot on Monday, June 13, 2011 6:46:23 PM
Ridgway.com has been quiet for almost ayear and a half now. I have moved twice in that time, and have settled into a new job in Houston in that time. I am planning on posting much more frequently as the political season moves towards the primaries and the coming election. With that in mind, here are my pre-game thoughts on the GOP debate this evening:
While I definately have preferences at this time, I am open to (almost) all of the candidates, and am anxioust to see them on stage this evening. One of the interesting subtexts to this debate and all of the other events that will follow is that viewers will be looking at the candidates not only as potential GOP nominees, but will also be making conscious and subconscious comparrisons between the candidates and the current president.. As a whole, I think that this is an impressive field, and that together they will likely come across as smart, thoughtful, passionate and credible alternatives to President Obama. In that vein, I don't think that the Obama campaign can be too excited about the next six months of debates and forums. I suspect that as the primary season draws closer, that President Obama's favorability rating will tick downward due to the breadth and strength of the Republican field.
Anyhow, here is what I will be looking for tonight.
Mitt Romney - Can he effectively explain RomneyCare. He really only has one shot to do this, and that is tonight. I know that he has and likely will make the federalism arguement, but he has to address how RomneyCare differs from ObamaCare, and explain why the former works and the latter will not.
Tim Pawlenty - Must explain his record of leadership in Minnesota. I like and respect that he demonstarted the politcal courage to oppose ethanol in Iowa, and entitlement reforms in Florida. Governor Pawlenty is never going to be Captian Charisma, but he can explain how his tenure in the Minnesota governorship delivered much needed reforms in a tough environment for Republicans. Political skill coupled with good policy is a strong hand.
Michelle Bachmann - Needs to provide a unique rationalle for her candidacy. Her conservative credentials are well known, and she is well enough known among politically active conservatives that she doesn't need to prove anything from a position standpoint. She has a great opportunity tonight to tell people why she should be President.
Hermann Cain - Has the most to win. People who know him, really like him, and his positions. His problem is that a lot of people including a lot of Republica primary voters don't know who he is. He needs to make the most of his limited opportunities tonight. He also needs to explain how his career largely outside of politics qualifies him for the Presidency.
Ron Paul - Needs to demonstrate a real world seriousness in regards to foreign policy. Dr. Paul is at his best when explaining economics, and issues of liberty, and often come across as a crank when the subject turns to foreign affairs. I'm anxious to see and hear Rep. Paul this evening because he is such a compelling speaker about libertarian ideas. His thoughts and ideas are heard too rarely, and I hope that he can reach people who have never heard him before. That said, he still has a huge hurdle to cross with primary voters to prove his seriousness on foreign affairs.
Newt Gingrich - In light of the mass resignation of campaign staff last week, Newt can do himself the most good by addressing the defection directly and honestly. He has to explain why he should be president, and why people should invest their money, time and enthusiasm in his campaign when his own staff decided to take a pass. Newt really has to thread the needle tonight of being grounded, sensible and believeable, while sufficiently explaining a rationalle for his candidacy that doesn't come across as petty or egomaniacal. If he succeeds, then he can conceivably stay in the race till labor day, and by then, who knows.
John Huntsman - Admittedly, I know the least about Governor Huntsman, and I suspect that I'm not alone. Even though I lived in Western Colorado all the years he was governor of Utah, I was never really aware of him, at least until he became ambassador to China. So, I'm hoping to learn a lot more about him, who he is, what he's done, and what talents, skills and beliefs he would bring to the oval office. Barring a major unforced error, I don't see how Governor Huntsman can do much to hurt his campaign tonight.
Dinner, then the debate. I'll be back later to post my thoughts.